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Forecast · Backtest 2024–2026

Where prices go next.

RealSignal forecasts area-cohort price movement with backtest-validated directional accuracy. The model has been wrong before; the track record is public.

Six- and twelve-month forecasts on every Greater Vancouver subarea, scored monthly against the boards' own settled prints — no editorialising.

74%
Vancouver · 6-month directional
n = 77 cohorts
81%
Toronto · 6-month directional
n = 186 cohorts
82%
Fraser Valley · 6-month directional
n = 36 cohorts
Vancouver West · Detached
HPI · 6-month forecast
BACKTEST 74% · 2024–2026
TODAY
HPI · settled printsForecast · model output80% prediction interval

Latest analysis · July 2026 · Vancouver

Greater Vancouver Market Intelligence: July 2026

Monthly Research Note · July 1, 2026 · 7 min read

Monthly Research Note | August 5, 2026

July answered June's question, and the answer was no. June's broad demand pop — the first meaningful annual sales gain of this cycle — did not persist: July sales fell to 2,061, down 9.8% year-over-year (YoY) and down 13.8% from June, led by an 18% collapse in apartment sales. Prices didn't just stay soft; the decline accelerated. Every segment's benchmark fell roughly a full point month-over-month (MoM) — the Composite Home Price Index (HPI) dropped 0.9% to $1,088,800, a fresh cycle low, 20.8% below the April 2022 peak and the steepest monthly decline since January. The one trend that did persist is the constructive one: sellers kept withdrawing. New listings fell to exactly the 10-year seasonal norm, and the inventory overhang compressed for a fourth straight month, to +26.8% above normal. Meanwhile the macro backdrop split in two — June inflation cooled to 2.8%, reopening the September rate-cut conversation, three days after Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, dairy, and alcohol, effective August 19. Last month we wrote that one strong month is not a bottom. July is why.

Read the full analysis

Market pulse · 7-day rolling

Median list price

$1.07M

▼ $10K vs prior 7d

Median DOM

58d

▲ 3 vs prior 7d

What we surface

The analytics layer the boards intentionally don't provide.

Surface BC price-cut volume the boards smooth out.

Daily subarea-level price-cut counts and silent-collapse detection — activity the boards roll into 'Price Pending' until 30–60 days post-close, made visible in real time.

Coverage · Greater Vancouver, GTA, Fraser Valley

Detect silent collapses.

Subareas where price activity flattens 21+ days then drops — the proxy for deal-collapse pressure the boards intentionally don't publish for 30–60 days post-close.

Backtest precision 0.81 · 24-month validation window

Forecasts you can audit.

Every monthly forecast vs what actually happened, public, scoring our own model. 75% Vancouver, 81% Toronto, 82% Fraser Valley · 6-month directional, 2024–2026.

Methodology · /reports/methodology

Membership

Personalized signal in your watched subareas.

Saved subareas, daily digest, alerts routed to you the same revisit they reach the model — anchored in the same analytics layer you just saw. The public surface is the evidence; membership is the personalisation on top of it.

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